Perth median house sale price could reach $750,000 by end of 2024

Perth’s median house sale price is on track to achieve growth of 25 per cent over 2024, according to REIWA’s latest property market quarterly update.

The median unit sale price could also see annual growth around 20 per cent.

REIWA CEO Cath Hart said if the market remained on the current trajectory, Perth’s median house sale price could reach $750,000 by the end of the year while the median unit sale price was likely to exceed $500,000.

“Demand for property in Perth remains strong as both houses and units continue to sell quickly which has seen the continued growth in prices,” she said.

“Perth’s median house sale price at the end of September was $707,000, already 17.8 per cent higher than at the end of December 2023 and 29.7 per cent higher than the previous peak of $545,000 set in 2014.

“The median unit sale price is also at a record high, reaching $470,000 at the end of September. It is currently 14.1 per cent higher than at the end of 2023 and 4.4 per cent higher than the previous record of $450,000 set in 2014.”

Ms Hart said the market continued to be driven by strong population growth and constraints in the building industry.

“Last week the ABS announced WA’s population is now over 3 million, which has been largely driven by overseas migration,” she said.

“This milestone highlights WA’s popularity as a desirable place to live, but the ongoing growth in population has also seen strong and sustained demand for housing.

“While new home build times are now recovering and being completed in quicker timeframes, Perth’s overall housing completions are still low, which is maintaining the strong demand for established homes and the continued upward pressure on prices.”

Ms Hart said there would need to be an unexpected change in current conditions to significantly slow Perth dwelling price growth, but there were a couple of factors that could affect the rate of growth.

“Factors that might impact the current price trend for Perth dwellings over the coming months and into the first half of 2025 include the upcoming elections, both federally and in WA, as well as potential changes to interest rates.

“We know market activity often slows in the lead up to elections as buyers and sellers wait to see the outcome. This is especially so when housing is one of the key policy areas — as will be the case in both the upcoming federal and WA elections.

“We have a state election in early March and the federal election has to be held before May. This is likely to have some effect on market sentiment and activity.

“The ongoing debate about if, or when, the Reserve Bank will cut rates may also lead to hesitation from some buyers who may be waiting for rates to fall before entering the market.

“We will continue to watch the data and the on-the-ground trends and update our forecast accordingly.”

Perth rental market

Perth’s median dwelling and house rent prices remained stable over the September quarter, while the median unit rent price increased.

At the end of September, the Perth median dwelling rent price was $650 per week, unchanged from June, but 8.3 per cent higher than December 2023.

Perth’s median house rent price was also $650 per week, unchanged from March and 4.8 per cent higher than at the end of 2023.

The median unit rent price was $640 per week, 6.7 per cent higher than June and 12.3 per cent higher than December 2023.

Ms Hart said despite the increase in the median unit rent price, the pressure in Perth’s rental market was continuing to moderate.

“New supply is coming to the market, which has seen the vacancy rate increase from a record low of 0.4 per cent in March to 1.6 per cent at the end of September,” she said.

“The market has also reached an affordability ceiling so while there could still be growth in median rent prices over the remainder of 2024, it is likely to be small.”

Regional WA

“Median house sale price growth is expected to vary across the regions,” Ms Hart said.

"Bunbury and Busselton regional centres could see annual growth of around 25 per cent, While the Albany, Broome, Esperance, Geraldton and Kalgoorlie regional centres are likely to see growth somewhere between 10 and 15 per cent.

Karratha and Port Hedland regional centres are likely to record less growth, possibly up to 5 per cent.

Rent price growth was also likely to vary across the regions.

“Rents have been stable in Karratha and trending downwards in Port Hedland and Broome recently. For these markets, stability or further declines are possible,” Ms Hart said.

“The other regional centres are likely to see their median rent prices increase over the remainder of 2024.”

REIWA will be publishing its regional September 2024 quarter report in late November.